Will Madagascar vs. Guinea-Bissau end in a draw?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 100¢ · $781 held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$781.3

Combined PnL

$32.03

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 99.5¢

+49% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$670.54

Total Shares729

Combined PnL+$74.91

No5 traders

Total Value$110.76

Total Shares526

Combined PnL-$42.88

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Yesavg 77.3¢	$318.51	$409.82	+$91.31	32% 534-1112 (1646)
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 71.2¢	$236.42	$173.23	-$63.19	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
RN1CTR	Noavg 24¢	$103.54	$88.51	-$15.03	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 33.2¢	$25.54	$72.79	+$47.25	32% 538-1128 (1666)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 58¢	$8.77	$12.1	+$3.33	41% 552-797 (1349)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$9.73	$10.07	+$0.34	46% 440-515 (955)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$7.71	$7.9	+$0.19	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$3.44	$3.52	+$0.08	83% 384-80 (464)
dips.CTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$22.14	$1.49	-$20.66	45% 537-651 (1188)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$1.99	$1.12	-$0.87	16% 31-166 (197)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$11.48	$0.77	-$10.71	43% 348-470 (818)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$318.51

Value

$409.82

PnL

+$91.31

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$236.42

Value

$173.23

PnL

-$63.19

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

RN1CTR

Invested

$103.54

Value

$88.51

PnL

-$15.03

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.54

Value

$72.79

PnL

+$47.25

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$8.77

Value

$12.1

PnL

+$3.33

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.73

Value

$10.07

PnL

+$0.34

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$7.71

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.19

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.44

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.08

Record

83%

384-80 (464)

dips.CTR<$100

Invested

$22.14

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$20.66

Record

45%

537-651 (1188)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$0.87

Record

16%

31-166 (197)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$11.48

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$10.71

Record

43%

348-470 (818)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.