Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (85%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ivory Coast vs. Gambia: O/U 3.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 16¢ · $406 held · ended Nov 12

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

Total Value

$406.14

Combined PnL

-$105.11

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 15.5¢

-67% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Under 85%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$197.71

Total Shares602

Combined PnL-$11.22

Over7 traders

Total Value$208.43

Total Shares643

Combined PnL-$93.88

Under — 46%Over — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 37.1¢	$144.39	$124.59	-$19.8	33% 327-665 (992)
CI cigarettesCTR	Overavg 50.2¢	$151.96	$86.26	-$65.7	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 48¢	$111.68	$73.32	-$38.36	48% 590-645 (1235)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 19¢	$19	$32	+$13	35% 221-416 (637)
CC ccllar<$100	Underavg 32¢	$28.16	$28.16	+$0	41% 32-46 (78)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 33.5¢	$26.17	$26.4	+$0.22	44% 431-541 (972)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 73¢	$10	$9.38	-$0.62	35% 298-548 (846)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Overavg 43.2¢	$19.09	$7.58	+$1.87	29% 206-510 (716)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$10.4	$6.8	+$6.4	63% 379-223 (602)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$4.68	$5.92	+$1.24	34% 592-1164 (1756)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$1.7	$2.15	+$0.45	33% 585-1187 (1772)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 66¢	$4.09	$1.98	-$2.11	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 66¢	$3.3	$1.6	-$1.7	41% 589-849 (1438)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$144.39

Value

$124.59

PnL

-$19.8

Record

33%

327-665 (992)

cigarettesCTR

Over

Invested

$151.96

Value

$86.26

PnL

-$65.7

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$111.68

Value

$73.32

PnL

-$38.36

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$19

Value

$32

PnL

+$13

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

ccllar<$100

Under

Invested

$28.16

Value

$28.16

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

32-46 (78)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.17

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$0.22

Record

44%

431-541 (972)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$9.38

PnL

-$0.62

Record

35%

298-548 (846)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.09

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$1.87

Record

29%

206-510 (716)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.4

Value

$6.8

PnL

+$6.4

Record

63%

379-223 (602)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.68

Value

$5.92

PnL

+$1.24

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.7

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$0.45

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$4.09

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$2.11

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$3.3

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$1.7

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Under 85%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.