Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Gambia, while the market favors Ivory Coast (60%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Ivory Coast (-1.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Gambia (75%) · Gambia at 40¢ · $347 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Gambia
8
Gambia 75%
$347.19
$74.79
23.6¢ → 40¢
+70% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralGambia at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Ivory Coast 60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Gambia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SL SlickRick123CTR | Gambiaavg 12¢ | $57.78 | $161.3 | +$103.52 | 27% 185-494 (679) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Gambiaavg 43.9¢ | $111.78 | $87.87 | -$23.92 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
SU suntori<$100 | Ivory Coastavg 56.1¢ | $59.91 | $60.83 | +$0.92 | 47% 1666-1892 (3558) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Ivory Coastavg 56.1¢ | $17.31 | $20.53 | +$3.22 | 55% 1658-1365 (3023) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Gambiaavg 14¢ | $3.18 | $7.6 | +$4.42 | 47% 549-607 (1156) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Gambiaavg 44.1¢ | $18.85 | $5.13 | -$13.72 | 41% 562-807 (1369) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Gambiaavg 14¢ | $1.4 | $3.35 | +$1.95 | 44% 405-509 (914) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Gambiaavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $0.6 | -$1.6 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
Invested
$57.78
Value
$161.3
PnL
+$103.52
Record
27%
185-494 (679)
Invested
$111.78
Value
$87.87
PnL
-$23.92
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Invested
$59.91
Value
$60.83
PnL
+$0.92
Record
47%
1666-1892 (3558)
Invested
$17.31
Value
$20.53
PnL
+$3.22
Record
55%
1658-1365 (3023)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$3.18
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$4.42
Record
47%
549-607 (1156)
Invested
$18.85
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$13.72
Record
41%
562-807 (1369)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$3.35
PnL
+$1.95
Record
44%
405-509 (914)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$1.6
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.