Will Ivory Coast win on 2026-11-12?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 79¢ · $263 held · ends Nov 12

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$263.08

Combined PnL

-$0.94

Smart Money Entry

79.8¢ → 79¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$187.34

Total Shares236

Combined PnL-$0.78

No2 traders

Total Value$16.34

Total Shares42

Combined PnL-$0.16

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$73.74	$73.74	+$0	33% 558-1109 (1667)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$65.59	$64.78	-$0.81	33% 534-1108 (1642)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 20.8¢	$60.62	$59.4	-$1.22	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ No leg	Noavg 20.8¢	$37.19	$35.83	-$1.36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 79.5¢	$23.44	$23.57	+$0.14
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$19.04	$18.8	-$0.24	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$16.46	$16.1	-$0.36	41% 544-784 (1328)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$11.3	$11.44	+$0.14	32% 538-1125 (1663)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$10	$10.13	+$0.13	0% 0-94 (94)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$8.45	$8.45	+$0	22% 176-635 (811)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 19.7¢	$4.48	$0.23	+$0.2	52% 761-712 (1473)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.74

Value

$73.74

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.59

Value

$64.78

PnL

-$0.81

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$60.62

Value

$59.4

PnL

-$1.22

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

Invested

$19.04

Value

$18.8

PnL

-$0.24

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$16.46

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$0.36

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.3

Value

$11.44

PnL

+$0.14

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

0-94 (94)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.45

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$0

Record

22%

176-635 (811)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.