Will Gambia win on 2026-11-12?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 95¢ · $526 held · ends Nov 12

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$526.32

Combined PnL

$2.5

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 94.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$526.2

Total Shares550

Combined PnL+$2.09

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.1

Total Shares1

Combined PnL+$0.41

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 93¢	$133.07	$134.6	+$1.53	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 94.2¢	$120.24	$120	-$0.24	33% 558-1109 (1667)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 94¢	$98.11	$98.63	+$0.52	33% 553-1132 (1685)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$63.58	$63.92	+$0.34	52% 185-171 (356)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 94¢	$47.2	$47.2	+$0	33% 534-1108 (1642)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 94¢	$47.24	$46.99	-$0.25	32% 538-1125 (1663)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 93¢	$14.67	$14.85	+$0.19	41% 544-784 (1328)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$32.95	$0.1	+$0.41	52% 761-712 (1473)

Flaznorp

Invested

$133.07

Value

$134.6

PnL

+$1.53

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

MadridTime

Invested

$120.24

Value

$120

PnL

-$0.24

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$98.11

Value

$98.63

PnL

+$0.52

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$63.58

Value

$63.92

PnL

+$0.34

Record

52%

185-171 (356)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$47.2

Value

$47.2

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$47.24

Value

$46.99

PnL

-$0.25

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$14.67

Value

$14.85

PnL

+$0.19

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.95

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.41

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.