Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ivory Coast vs. Gambia: 1st Half O/U 1.5
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (13%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $604 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 13%
$604.21
-$134.46
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Overavg 60¢ | $98.95 | $164.83 | +$65.88 | 53% 6207-5499 (11706) |
LR lryyy | Overavg 96¢ | $136.85 | $142.48 | +$5.63 | 44% 405-509 (914) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $34.37 | $86.83 | +$52.46 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 94¢ | $68.15 | $72.46 | +$4.31 | 47% 549-607 (1156) |
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100 | Overavg 87.3¢ | $61.1 | $69.97 | +$8.87 | 55% 89-74 (163) |
 dips.<$100 | Overavg 89.1¢ | $55.74 | $62.51 | +$6.77 | 45% 544-659 (1203) |
SM smithagent<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $3.68 | $4.54 | +$0.86 | 42% 353-481 (834) |
 nacaradogolCTR | Underavg 23.4¢ | $279.84 | $0.6 | -$279.24 | — 6-7 (13) |
Invested
$98.95
Value
$164.83
PnL
+$65.88
Record
53%
6207-5499 (11706)
Invested
$136.85
Value
$142.48
PnL
+$5.63
Record
44%
405-509 (914)
Invested
$34.37
Value
$86.83
PnL
+$52.46
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
poshposh<$100Invested
$68.15
Value
$72.46
PnL
+$4.31
Record
47%
549-607 (1156)
Invested
$61.1
Value
$69.97
PnL
+$8.87
Record
55%
89-74 (163)
dips.<$100Invested
$55.74
Value
$62.51
PnL
+$6.77
Record
45%
544-659 (1203)
Invested
$3.68
Value
$4.54
PnL
+$0.86
Record
42%
353-481 (834)
nacaradogolCTRInvested
$279.84
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$279.24
Record
—
6-7 (13)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.