Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Ivory Coast vs. Gambia: Both Teams to Score
3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 0.4¢ · $399 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
No
10
No 30%
$398.59
-$3.62
58.3¢ → 0.4¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 60.6¢ | $169.27 | $134.18 | -$35.09 | 52% 784-728 (1512) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 90¢ | $131.04 | $118.54 | -$12.51 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
WI Winning2...<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $22.73 | $55.13 | +$32.4 | — 0-12 (12) |
 poshposh<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $16.56 | $40.12 | +$23.56 | 47% 549-607 (1156) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $18.41 | $33.52 | +$15.11 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $7.91 | $6.23 | -$1.69 | 41% 562-807 (1369) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $4.97 | +$1.62 | 83% 395-82 (477) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $3.55 | +$1.6 | 33% 539-1116 (1655) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $0.75 | $2.02 | +$1.27 | 44% 405-509 (914) |
US User7429CTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $30.24 | $0.35 | -$29.89 | 34% 206-396 (602) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$169.27
Value
$134.18
PnL
-$35.09
Record
52%
784-728 (1512)
Invested
$131.04
Value
$118.54
PnL
-$12.51
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Invested
$22.73
Value
$55.13
PnL
+$32.4
Record
—
0-12 (12)
poshposh<$100Invested
$16.56
Value
$40.12
PnL
+$23.56
Record
47%
549-607 (1156)
Invested
$18.41
Value
$33.52
PnL
+$15.11
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
Invested
$7.91
Value
$6.23
PnL
-$1.69
Record
41%
562-807 (1369)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$3.35
Value
$4.97
PnL
+$1.62
Record
83%
395-82 (477)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$3.55
PnL
+$1.6
Record
33%
539-1116 (1655)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$2.02
PnL
+$1.27
Record
44%
405-509 (914)
Invested
$30.24
Value
$0.35
PnL
-$29.89
Record
34%
206-396 (602)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.