Guinea vs. Eritrea: O/U 4.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 90¢ · $660 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$659.89
-$18.56
86.7¢ → 90.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 84¢ | $409.45 | $404.57 | -$4.87 | 55% 1645-1352 (2997) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 15.6¢ | $78.39 | $85.2 | +$6.81 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $81.84 | $73.04 | -$8.8 | 44% 389-495 (884) |
SL SlickRick123<$100 | Underavg 93¢ | $66.03 | $58.93 | -$7.1 | 27% 182-490 (672) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 94¢ | $39.36 | $34.75 | -$4.61 | 47% 532-590 (1122) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $1.43 | $1.32 | -$0.11 | 43% 348-470 (818) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $1 | $1.06 | +$0.06 | 49% 1241-1273 (2514) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $0.95 | $1.01 | +$0.06 | 41% 552-797 (1349) |
Invested
$409.45
Value
$404.57
PnL
-$4.87
Record
55%
1645-1352 (2997)
Invested
$78.39
Value
$85.2
PnL
+$6.81
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$81.84
Value
$73.04
PnL
-$8.8
Record
44%
389-495 (884)
Invested
$66.03
Value
$58.93
PnL
-$7.1
Record
27%
182-490 (672)
poshposh<$100Invested
$39.36
Value
$34.75
PnL
-$4.61
Record
47%
532-590 (1122)
Invested
$1.43
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$0.11
Record
43%
348-470 (818)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.06
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
1241-1273 (2514)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.06
Record
41%
552-797 (1349)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.