Guinea vs. Eritrea: O/U 3.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 77¢ · $522 held · ended Nov 12

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

Total Value

$522.36

Combined PnL

-$35.29

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 77¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$430.51

Total Shares700

Combined PnL-$49.7

Over5 traders

Total Value$91.85

Total Shares234

Combined PnL+$14.41

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Underavg 69¢	$345	$292.5	-$52.5	33% 312-635 (947)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 67¢	$105.79	$69.02	-$3.2	52% 773-714 (1487)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 63¢	$62.99	$68.99	+$6	42% 291-405 (696)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 32.8¢	$41.47	$49.26	+$7.79	32% 534-1112 (1646)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 33.4¢	$18.84	$21.95	+$3.11	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$12.52	$15.26	+$2.74	32% 538-1128 (1666)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$2.81	$3.42	+$0.61	33% 558-1111 (1669)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.95	+$0.15	41% 552-797 (1349)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under

Invested

$345

Value

$292.5

PnL

-$52.5

Record

33%

312-635 (947)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$105.79

Value

$69.02

PnL

-$3.2

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$62.99

Value

$68.99

PnL

+$6

Record

42%

291-405 (696)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.47

Value

$49.26

PnL

+$7.79

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.84

Value

$21.95

PnL

+$3.11

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.52

Value

$15.26

PnL

+$2.74

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.81

Value

$3.42

PnL

+$0.61

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-33 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.