Guinea vs. Eritrea: O/U 2.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 100¢ · $331 held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$330.94

Combined PnL

$1.45

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 99.6¢

+67% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$311.48

Total Shares497

Combined PnL+$1.18

Under2 traders

Total Value$19.46

Total Shares44

Combined PnL+$0.27

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 56.8¢	$153.07	$150.33	-$2.75	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 56.7¢	$41.62	$40.75	-$0.87	41% 552-797 (1349)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 62.6¢	$33.78	$36.18	+$2.4	44% 389-495 (884)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 66¢	$33	$33.5	+$0.5	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 65.5¢	$28.89	$29.56	+$0.67	47% 532-590 (1122)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Overavg 63.1¢	$19.94	$21.16	+$1.23	27% 182-490 (672)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$17.04	$17.24	+$0.19	52% 773-714 (1487)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.23	+$0.08	49% 1241-1273 (2514)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$153.07

Value

$150.33

PnL

-$2.75

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$41.62

Value

$40.75

PnL

-$0.87

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$33.78

Value

$36.18

PnL

+$2.4

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$33

Value

$33.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$28.89

Value

$29.56

PnL

+$0.67

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

SlickRick123<$100

Over

Invested

$19.94

Value

$21.16

PnL

+$1.23

Record

27%

182-490 (672)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.04

Value

$17.24

PnL

+$0.19

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.