Spread: Guinea (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Guinea (57%) · Guinea at 54¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Guinea
7
Guinea 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$24.99
53.5¢ → 53.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralGuinea at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on Guinea. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Guineaavg 54¢ | $368 | $356.83 | -$11.17 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
FL Flaznorp | Guineaavg 53.1¢ | $349.67 | $342.3 | -$7.37 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
VE VenusianCTR | Eritreaavg 47¢ | $217.8 | $213.16 | -$4.63 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Guineaavg 53.1¢ | $83.51 | $81.78 | -$1.73 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Guineaavg 53¢ | $63.48 | $61.56 | -$1.92 | 52% 185-171 (356) |
| └ Guinea leg | Guineaavg 53¢ | $31.8 | $31.2 | -$0.6 | |
| └ Eritrea leg | Eritreaavg 48¢ | $31.68 | $30.36 | -$1.32 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Eritreaavg 45.7¢ | $6.94 | $6.99 | +$0.05 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
SU suntori<$100 | Guineaavg 54¢ | $4.76 | $4.58 | -$0.18 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Eritreaavg 46¢ | $50.05 | $4.1 | +$0.04 | 52% 761-712 (1473) |
Invested
$368
Value
$356.83
PnL
-$11.17
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Invested
$349.67
Value
$342.3
PnL
-$7.37
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$217.8
Value
$213.16
PnL
-$4.63
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
Invested
$83.51
Value
$81.78
PnL
-$1.73
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
Invested
$63.48
Value
$61.56
PnL
-$1.92
Record
52%
185-171 (356)
Both legs:
Invested
$6.94
Value
$6.99
PnL
+$0.05
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$4.58
PnL
-$0.18
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$50.05
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
761-712 (1473)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.