Will Guinea win on 2026-11-12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
3 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$9.89
79.1¢ → 77.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+30 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Yesavg 78¢ | $449.71 | $446.83 | -$2.88 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 78.2¢ | $374.08 | $381.72 | +$7.65 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 78.2¢ | $258.19 | $255.94 | -$2.25 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 20.7¢ | $115.89 | $125.78 | +$9.9 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $253.56 | $252.37 | -$1.19 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 78¢ | $177.06 | $175.93 | -$1.13 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 22.5¢ | $76.5 | $76.44 | -$0.05 | |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 84.9¢ | $95.82 | $88.02 | -$7.8 | 47% 1541-1714 (3255) |
SE sentrioARB<$100 | Yesavg 80.4¢ | $57.86 | $57.01 | -$0.86 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 80.4¢ | $34.79 | $33.52 | -$1.27 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 22.1¢ | $23.07 | $23.48 | +$0.41 | |
WA waierma<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $10 | $9.94 | -$0.06 | 0% 0-94 (94) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $14.68 | $1.44 | +$0.91 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 23¢ | $1.22 | $1.17 | -$0.05 | 50% 1226-1249 (2475) |
Invested
$449.71
Value
$446.83
PnL
-$2.88
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
Invested
$374.08
Value
$381.72
PnL
+$7.65
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Both legs:
Invested
$253.56
Value
$252.37
PnL
-$1.19
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.82
Value
$88.02
PnL
-$7.8
Record
47%
1541-1714 (3255)
Invested
$57.86
Value
$57.01
PnL
-$0.86
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Both legs:
Invested
$10
Value
$9.94
PnL
-$0.06
Record
0%
0-94 (94)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$14.68
Value
$1.44
PnL
+$0.91
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
1226-1249 (2475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.