Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Guinea vs. Eritrea: 1st Half O/U 1.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 0.4¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 78%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$93.84

Smart Money Entry

42¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,719

Combined PnL-$88.27

Under2 traders

Total Value$12.08

Total Shares22

Combined PnL-$5.57

Over — 78%Under — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 34.2¢	$538.1	$582.08	+$43.97	33% 558-1111 (1669)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR	Overavg 89.9¢	$342	$192.01	-$149.99	99% 244-3 (247)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 34.8¢	$146.22	$155.04	+$8.81	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$70	$76.18	+$6.18	60% 674-451 (1125)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$39.94	$42.22	+$2.28	33% 553-1135 (1688)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Underavg 76¢	$12.7	$7.1	-$5.6	33% 312-635 (947)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$6.16	$6.51	+$0.35	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
MA maxiplayer<$100	Underavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.98	+$0.02	— 7-3 (10)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 15.4¢	$2.88	$3	+$0.12	47% 532-590 (1122)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$538.1

Value

$582.08

PnL

+$43.97

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR

Over

Invested

$342

Value

$192.01

PnL

-$149.99

Record

99%

244-3 (247)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$146.22

Value

$155.04

PnL

+$8.81

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70

Value

$76.18

PnL

+$6.18

Record

60%

674-451 (1125)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.94

Value

$42.22

PnL

+$2.28

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Under

Invested

$12.7

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$5.6

Record

33%

312-635 (947)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.16

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

maxiplayer<$100

Under

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

—

7-3 (10)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.88

Value

PnL

+$0.12

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6472.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

6572.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.