Will Eritrea win on 2026-11-12?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$7.67

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 93.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,762

Combined PnL-$9.13

Yes6 traders

Total Value$221.86

Total Shares3,413

Combined PnL+$16.8

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fxwd12345	Noavg 94¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$16.66	76% 22-7 (29)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 92¢	$265.65	$271.43	+$5.78	46% 438-515 (953)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$142.33	$153.87	+$11.54	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$77.77	$78.96	+$1.19	52% 184-170 (354)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 93¢	$52.81	$53.38	+$0.57	33% 556-1107 (1663)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$30.01	$32.51	+$2.5	32% 536-1124 (1660)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$20	$21.67	+$1.67	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$11.55	$12.51	+$0.96	50% 1226-1249 (2475)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$1.21	$1.24	+$0.03	41% 543-780 (1323)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$18.76	$0.07	+$0.11	52% 754-704 (1458)

fxwd12345

Invested

$3,132.86

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$16.66

Record

76%

22-7 (29)

SnakeBall

Invested

$265.65

Value

$271.43

PnL

+$5.78

Record

46%

438-515 (953)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$142.33

Value

$153.87

PnL

+$11.54

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$77.77

Value

$78.96

PnL

+$1.19

Record

52%

184-170 (354)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$52.81

Value

$53.38

PnL

+$0.57

Record

33%

556-1107 (1663)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.01

Value

$32.51

PnL

+$2.5

Record

32%

536-1124 (1660)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$21.67

PnL

+$1.67

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.55

Value

$12.51

PnL

+$0.96

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.03

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.76

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.11

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.