Ghana vs. Somalia: O/U 4.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 96¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$47.28

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 96¢

+6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,273

Combined PnL-$47.82

Over3 traders

Total Value$52.74

Total Shares373

Combined PnL+$0.54

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 94.5¢	$565.52	$558.43	-$7.09	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
poshposh	Underavg 86.7¢	$326.02	$302.84	-$23.18	47% 522-581 (1103)
SL SlickRick123	Underavg 87¢	$180.95	$167.43	-$13.52	27% 182-489 (671)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 12.5¢	$168.19	$102.19	-$66	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ Under leg	Underavg 88.8¢	$55.34	$59.34	+$4
└ Over leg	Overavg 12.5¢	$112.85	$42.86	-$69.99
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 86.3¢	$62.36	$58.17	-$4.19	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
SM smithagent<$100	Underavg 96¢	$38.4	$38.68	+$0.28	43% 344-463 (807)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 9.4¢	$15.28	$31.65	+$16.37	36% 209-368 (577)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$19.6	$15.92	-$3.67	41% 544-784 (1328)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 98.5¢	$5.91	$5.76	-$0.15	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 13.4¢	$17.33	$5.17	-$12.16	34% 277-534 (811)
dips.<$100	Underavg 96¢	$9.58	$5.08	+$0.04	45% 530-649 (1179)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$565.52

Value

$558.43

PnL

-$7.09

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$326.02

Value

$302.84

PnL

-$23.18

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

SlickRick123

Under

Invested

$180.95

Value

$167.43

PnL

-$13.52

Record

27%

182-489 (671)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$168.19

Value

$102.19

PnL

-$66

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

Under$55.3488.8¢+$4

Over$112.8512.5¢-$69.99

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$62.36

Value

$58.17

PnL

-$4.19

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

smithagent<$100

Under

Invested

$38.4

Value

$38.68

PnL

+$0.28

Record

43%

344-463 (807)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.28

Value

$31.65

PnL

+$16.37

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.6

Value

$15.92

PnL

-$3.67

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$5.91

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.33

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$12.16

Record

34%

277-534 (811)

dips.<$100

Under

Invested

$9.58

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

45%

530-649 (1179)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.