Ghana vs. Somalia: O/U 3.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 92¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$79.2

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 91.5¢

+15% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares5,061

Combined PnL+$100.32

Over4 traders

Total Value$143.67

Total Shares897

Combined PnL-$21.12

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Underavg 77¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$257.84	— 5-8 (13)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 83.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$121.43	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 20.7¢	$838.16	$835.46	-$2.7	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.5¢	$335.5	$434.35	+$98.85
└ Over leg	Overavg 20.7¢	$502.66	$401.11	-$101.55
SL SlickRick123	Underavg 82.2¢	$605.53	$533.84	-$71.68	27% 182-489 (671)
LR lryyy	Underavg 78.6¢	$174.17	$169.89	-$4.28	44% 384-486 (870)
poshposh	Underavg 68¢	$102.12	$115.73	+$13.61	47% 522-581 (1103)
RO Rocko33CTR	Overavg 15¢	$103.92	$114.51	+$10.59	63% 27-16 (43)
CI cigarettes	Underavg 76¢	$101.32	$110.47	+$9.14	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 60.8¢	$66.66	$83.33	+$16.67	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$25.16	$12.16	-$13	33% 302-622 (924)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 38.6¢	$23.84	$10.01	-$5.71	52% 761-712 (1473)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 76¢	$7.6	$7.7	+$0.1	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 25.7¢	$20	$6.99	-$13.01	34% 277-534 (811)
SM smithagent<$100	Underavg 73¢	$6.26	$1.61	+$0.35	43% 344-463 (807)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Under

Invested

$1,527.18

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$257.84

Record

—

5-8 (13)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,817.55

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$121.43

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$838.16

Value

$835.46

PnL

-$2.7

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

Both legs:

Under$335.564.5¢+$98.85

Over$502.6620.7¢-$101.55

SlickRick123

Under

Invested

$605.53

Value

$533.84

PnL

-$71.68

Record

27%

182-489 (671)

lryyy

Under

Invested

$174.17

Value

$169.89

PnL

-$4.28

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$102.12

Value

$115.73

PnL

+$13.61

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

Rocko33CTR

Over

Invested

$103.92

Value

$114.51

PnL

+$10.59

Record

63%

27-16 (43)

cigarettes

Under

Invested

$101.32

Value

$110.47

PnL

+$9.14

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$66.66

Value

$83.33

PnL

+$16.67

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.16

Value

$12.16

PnL

-$13

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.84

Value

$10.01

PnL

-$5.71

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$6.99

PnL

-$13.01

Record

34%

277-534 (811)

smithagent<$100

Under

Invested

$6.26

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.35

Record

43%

344-463 (807)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (6 on Under) disagree here.

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.