Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ghana vs. Somalia: O/U 2.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 49¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$5.03

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$116.88

Total Shares214

Combined PnL+$8.12

Over4 traders

Total Value$38.11

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$3.09

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 49.9¢	$862.49	$834.41	-$28.08	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.9¢	$632.55	$595.45	-$37.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$229.94	$238.96	+$9.02
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 53.6¢	$142.31	$145.43	+$3.12	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.6¢	$78.46	$92.28	+$13.82
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.4¢	$63.85	$53.15	-$10.7
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$54.63	$53.45	-$1.18	47% 522-581 (1103)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$18.24	$29.76	+$11.52	33% 553-1132 (1685)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 58.2¢	$20	$19.77	-$0.23	34% 277-534 (811)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 40.4¢	$7.5	$9.48	+$1.98	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 48.7¢	$10.22	$8.61	-$1.61	44% 384-486 (870)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$7.14	$7.38	+$0.24	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$38.96	$5.08	-$1.73	27% 182-489 (671)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 48¢	$8.12	$5.08	-$3.04	33% 534-1108 (1642)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Underavg 42.9¢	$4.07	$4.03	-$0.04	55% 88-72 (160)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 54¢	$23.79	$3.79	-$1.79	63% 363-217 (580)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.2	$3.1	+$0.9	32% 538-1125 (1663)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.1	+$0.05	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.38	-$0.02	33% 558-1109 (1667)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$862.49

Value

$834.41

PnL

-$28.08

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

Both legs:

Under$632.5549.9¢-$37.1

Over$229.9451¢+$9.02

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$142.31

Value

$145.43

PnL

+$3.12

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

Under$78.4653.6¢+$13.82

Over$63.8544.4¢-$10.7

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.63

Value

$53.45

PnL

-$1.18

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.24

Value

$29.76

PnL

+$11.52

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$20

Value

$19.77

PnL

-$0.23

Record

34%

277-534 (811)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$7.5

Value

$9.48

PnL

+$1.98

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.22

Value

$8.61

PnL

-$1.61

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.14

Value

$7.38

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.96

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$1.73

Record

27%

182-489 (671)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$8.12

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$3.04

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.07

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$0.04

Record

55%

88-72 (160)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$23.79

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$1.79

Record

63%

363-217 (580)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.9

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.