Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (83%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ghana vs. Somalia: O/U 1.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 18¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$36.05

Smart Money Entry

20¢ → 17.5¢

-13% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 83%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares5,869

Combined PnL+$6.62

Over2 traders

Total Value$498.94

Total Shares604

Combined PnL+$29.43

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 19.9¢	$979.22	$870.51	-$108.71	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Overavg 77.2¢	$428.95	$458.2	+$29.25	— 5-8 (13)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 23¢	$89.61	$146.1	+$56.49	36% 209-368 (577)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$38.76	$53.05	+$14.28	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$23.6	$43.84	+$20.23	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 83.6¢	$40.55	$40.74	+$0.18	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$21.12	$33	+$11.88	44% 384-486 (870)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$12.72	$19.88	+$7.15	27% 182-489 (671)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$12.74	$18.38	+$5.64	47% 522-581 (1103)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$17.6	$14	-$3.6	63% 363-217 (580)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 16.2¢	$5.24	$8.39	+$3.15	33% 553-1132 (1685)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$3.4	$3.5	+$0.1	33% 534-1108 (1642)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$979.22

Value

$870.51

PnL

-$108.71

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Over

Invested

$428.95

Value

$458.2

PnL

+$29.25

Record

—

5-8 (13)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$89.61

Value

$146.1

PnL

+$56.49

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.76

Value

$53.05

PnL

+$14.28

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.6

Value

$43.84

PnL

+$20.23

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$40.55

Value

$40.74

PnL

+$0.18

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.12

Value

$33

PnL

+$11.88

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.72

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$7.15

Record

27%

182-489 (671)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.74

Value

$18.38

PnL

+$5.64

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.6

Value

$14

PnL

-$3.6

Record

63%

363-217 (580)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.24

Value

$8.39

PnL

+$3.15

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 83%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.3%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$419.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

519.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.