Spread: Ghana (-3.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Somalia (50%) · Somalia at 89¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Somalia
8
Somalia 50%
$3.5K
-$50.54
83.9¢ → 89¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralSomalia at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 dips. | Somaliaavg 79.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.9K | +$169.67 | 45% 530-649 (1179) |
FL Flaznorp | Somaliaavg 90.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$91.96 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Ghanaavg 16.9¢ | $415.25 | $282.61 | -$132.64 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Ghanaavg 9.3¢ | $19.51 | $22.97 | +$3.46 | 27% 182-489 (671) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Ghanaavg 10.4¢ | $14.89 | $15.77 | +$0.88 | 47% 522-581 (1103) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Somaliaavg 95¢ | $9.31 | $8.67 | -$0.64 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Somaliaavg 72¢ | $6.12 | $6.21 | +$0.08 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Ghanaavg 8¢ | $1.08 | $1.69 | +$0.61 | 82% 375-80 (455) |
dips.Invested
$1,724.4
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$169.67
Record
45%
530-649 (1179)
Invested
$1,405.89
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$91.96
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$415.25
Value
$282.61
PnL
-$132.64
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Invested
$19.51
Value
$22.97
PnL
+$3.46
Record
27%
182-489 (671)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$14.89
Value
$15.77
PnL
+$0.88
Record
47%
522-581 (1103)
Invested
$9.31
Value
$8.67
PnL
-$0.64
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
Invested
$6.12
Value
$6.21
PnL
+$0.08
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$1.69
PnL
+$0.61
Record
82%
375-80 (455)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.