Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Somalia, while the market favors Ghana (51%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Ghana (-2.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Somalia (63%) · Somalia at 50¢ · $588 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Somalia
8
Somalia 63%
$587.5
-$0.91
49.9¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSomalia at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Ghana 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Somalia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Somaliaavg 49.9¢ | $315.24 | $313.2 | -$2.04 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Ghanaavg 50¢ | $83.51 | $88.52 | +$5.01 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Somaliaavg 50.1¢ | $69.92 | $67.68 | -$2.24 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Somaliaavg 50¢ | $59.5 | $57.12 | -$2.38 | 52% 184-170 (354) |
SU suntori<$100 | Ghanaavg 53¢ | $29.52 | $28.13 | -$1.39 | 47% 1547-1731 (3278) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Ghanaavg 48.9¢ | $25.82 | $27.98 | +$2.16 | 42% 291-405 (696) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Somaliaavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.48 | +$0.08 | 50% 1226-1249 (2475) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Somaliaavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $2.4 | -$0.1 | 32% 536-1124 (1660) |
Invested
$315.24
Value
$313.2
PnL
-$2.04
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Invested
$83.51
Value
$88.52
PnL
+$5.01
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Invested
$69.92
Value
$67.68
PnL
-$2.24
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
Invested
$59.5
Value
$57.12
PnL
-$2.38
Record
52%
184-170 (354)
Invested
$29.52
Value
$28.13
PnL
-$1.39
Record
47%
1547-1731 (3278)
Invested
$25.82
Value
$27.98
PnL
+$2.16
Record
42%
291-405 (696)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
1226-1249 (2475)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.1
Record
32%
536-1124 (1660)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.