Spread: Ghana (-1.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ghana (45%) · Ghana at 98¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Ghana98¢Somalia2¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ghana

Consensus Traders

Ghana 45%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$308.58

Smart Money Entry

87.3¢ → 98.3¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGhana at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ghana

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Ghana98%

Somalia2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ghana5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,585

Combined PnL-$206.45

Somalia6 traders

Total Value$108.29

Total Shares594

Combined PnL-$102.13

Ghana — 45%Somalia — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Ghana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSomalia 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Somalia 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Ghanaavg 84.8¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$291.13	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
GO GoalLineGhost	Ghanaavg 91.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$66.53	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
poshposhCTR	Somaliaavg 30.7¢	$110.66	$80.53	-$30.14	47% 522-581 (1103)
RO Rocko33<$100	Ghanaavg 70¢	$35	$48.7	+$13.7	63% 27-16 (43)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Ghanaavg 66¢	$9.12	$13.46	+$4.34	82% 375-80 (455)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Somaliaavg 26¢	$5.2	$9	+$3.8	33% 302-622 (924)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Somaliaavg 40¢	$7.6	$8.55	+$0.95	33% 558-1109 (1667)
dips.CTR<$100	Somaliaavg 30.7¢	$76.25	$6.46	-$69.79	45% 530-649 (1179)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Ghanaavg 72¢	$5	$5.1	+$0.11	46% 440-515 (955)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Somaliaavg 7.6¢	$3.8	$3.35	-$0.45	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Somaliaavg 44.1¢	$6.91	$0.41	-$6.5	49% 1228-1254 (2482)

Flaznorp

Ghana

Invested

$2,254.46

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$291.13

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

GoalLineGhost

Ghana

Invested

$1,481.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$66.53

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

poshposhCTR

Somalia

Invested

$110.66

Value

$80.53

PnL

-$30.14

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

Rocko33<$100

Ghana

Invested

$35

Value

$48.7

PnL

+$13.7

Record

63%

27-16 (43)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Ghana

Invested

$9.12

Value

$13.46

PnL

+$4.34

Record

82%

375-80 (455)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Somalia

Invested

$5.2

Value

PnL

+$3.8

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Somalia

Invested

$7.6

Value

$8.55

PnL

+$0.95

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

dips.CTR<$100

Somalia

Invested

$76.25

Value

$6.46

PnL

-$69.79

Record

45%

530-649 (1179)

SnakeBall<$100

Ghana

Invested

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0.11

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Somalia

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Somalia

Invested

$6.91

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$6.5

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Research grade

NeutralGhana at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ghana

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Ghana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSomalia 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Somalia 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ghana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.