Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ghana leading at halftime?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (46%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 46%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$54.98

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$958.55

Total Shares1,329

Combined PnL+$135.89

Yes7 traders

Total Value$518.12

Total Shares682

Combined PnL-$80.91

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 53.6¢	$613.49	$658.13	+$44.64	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
SM smithagent	Yesavg 96.8¢	$156.87	$158.76	+$1.89	43% 344-463 (807)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 43.6¢	$100.89	$123.92	+$23.02	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 70¢	$183.6	$114.92	-$68.68	33% 534-1108 (1642)
dips.	Yesavg 96.2¢	$104.3	$103.54	-$0.76	45% 530-649 (1179)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$34.94	$78.93	+$44	33% 302-622 (924)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Yesavg 97¢	$65.31	$64.97	-$0.34	63% 363-217 (580)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$46	$61	+$15	36% 209-368 (577)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$50.88	$41.52	-$9.36	32% 538-1125 (1663)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$19.91	$35.37	+$15.46	41% 544-784 (1328)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$29.86	$30.8	+$0.94	47% 522-581 (1103)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 51.3¢	$8.21	$3.6	-$4.61	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 21.7¢	$7.43	$1.2	-$6.23	27% 182-489 (671)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$613.49

Value

$658.13

PnL

+$44.64

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

smithagent

Yes

Invested

$156.87

Value

$158.76

PnL

+$1.89

Record

43%

344-463 (807)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$100.89

Value

$123.92

PnL

+$23.02

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$183.6

Value

$114.92

PnL

-$68.68

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

dips.

Yes

Invested

$104.3

Value

$103.54

PnL

-$0.76

Record

45%

530-649 (1179)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$34.94

Value

$78.93

PnL

+$44

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

suitcase6628<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.31

Value

$64.97

PnL

-$0.34

Record

63%

363-217 (580)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$46

Value

$61

PnL

+$15

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.88

Value

$41.52

PnL

-$9.36

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$19.91

Value

$35.37

PnL

+$15.46

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.86

Value

$30.8

PnL

+$0.94

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.21

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$4.61

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$7.43

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$6.23

Record

27%

182-489 (671)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.