Somalia leading at halftime?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$35.17

Smart Money Entry

96.3¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,429

Combined PnL-$54.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$53.56

Total Shares653

Combined PnL+$19.6

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.8¢	$842.52	$804.88	-$37.64	46% 440-515 (955)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 95.7¢	$190.85	$184.37	-$6.48	36% 209-368 (577)
poshposh	Noavg 94.8¢	$160.32	$156.34	-$3.97	47% 522-581 (1103)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$95.55	$92.45	-$3.1	52% 761-712 (1473)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 96¢	$48	$46.23	-$1.77	33% 553-1132 (1685)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$11.19	$32.58	+$21.39	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$9.14	$19.76	+$10.62	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$19.42	$18.53	-$0.89	33% 534-1108 (1642)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$18.41	$17.56	-$0.85	32% 538-1125 (1663)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$13.63	$1.23	-$12.41	19% 816-3585 (4401)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$1.11	$1.04	-$0.07	49% 1228-1254 (2482)

SnakeBall

Invested

$842.52

Value

$804.88

PnL

-$37.64

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$190.85

Value

$184.37

PnL

-$6.48

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

poshposh

Invested

$160.32

Value

$156.34

PnL

-$3.97

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$95.55

Value

$92.45

PnL

-$3.1

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$46.23

PnL

-$1.77

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.19

Value

$32.58

PnL

+$21.39

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.14

Value

$19.76

PnL

+$10.62

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$19.42

Value

$18.53

PnL

-$0.89

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$18.41

Value

$17.56

PnL

-$0.85

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.63

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$12.41

Record

19%

816-3585 (4401)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.