Will Ghana win on 2026-11-12?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 91¢ · $687 held · ends Nov 12

Yes91¢No9¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$686.92

Combined PnL

-$3.73

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes91%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$491.36

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$2.28

No3 traders

Total Value$31.11

Total Shares295

Combined PnL-$1.45

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 90¢	$401.4	$399.17	-$2.23	32% 500-1044 (1544)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 9.7¢	$168.75	$164.41	-$4.33	51% 2328-2218 (4546)
└ No leg	Noavg 9.7¢	$94.6	$87.8	-$6.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 88.1¢	$74.15	$76.62	+$2.47
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 89.6¢	$83.34	$83.24	-$0.11	53% 177-159 (336)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 10.1¢	$19.18	$17.74	-$1.45	41% 490-712 (1202)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$8.9	$8.95	+$0.05	52% 661-616 (1277)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$6.69	$6.69	+$0	59% 3517-2395 (5912)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$6.69	$6.69	+$0	25% 136-410 (546)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$401.4

Value

$399.17

PnL

-$2.23

Record

32%

500-1044 (1544)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$168.75

Value

$164.41

PnL

-$4.33

Record

51%

2328-2218 (4546)

Both legs:

Invested

$83.34

Value

$83.24

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

177-159 (336)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$19.18

Value

$17.74

PnL

-$1.45

Record

41%

490-712 (1202)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.9

Value

$8.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

661-616 (1277)

NM-PCTR<$100

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.69

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3517-2395 (5912)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.69

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

136-410 (546)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.