Ghana vs. Somalia: 1st Half O/U 1.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 78%
$3.0K
$696.05
61.2¢ → 100¢
+63% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 53.8¢ | $692.52 | $1.2K | +$537.3 | 60% 673-450 (1123) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 71.6¢ | $536.85 | $715.58 | +$178.73 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 64.8¢ | $745.97 | $624.96 | -$121.01 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 53.8¢ | $107.58 | $191 | +$83.42 | 52% 761-712 (1473) |
 poshposh | Underavg 73¢ | $100.18 | $122.49 | +$22.31 | 47% 522-581 (1103) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $34.12 | $60.34 | +$26.22 | 41% 544-784 (1328) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $13.11 | $5.77 | -$7.35 | 44% 384-486 (870) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $2.09 | $3.56 | +$1.47 | 52% 185-171 (356) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Overavg 41.6¢ | $28.05 | $0.63 | -$25.04 | 49% 1228-1254 (2482) |
Invested
$692.52
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$537.3
Record
60%
673-450 (1123)
Invested
$536.85
Value
$715.58
PnL
+$178.73
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$745.97
Value
$624.96
PnL
-$121.01
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
VeryLucky888Invested
$107.58
Value
$191
PnL
+$83.42
Record
52%
761-712 (1473)
poshposhInvested
$100.18
Value
$122.49
PnL
+$22.31
Record
47%
522-581 (1103)
Invested
$34.12
Value
$60.34
PnL
+$26.22
Record
41%
544-784 (1328)
Invested
$13.11
Value
$5.77
PnL
-$7.35
Record
44%
384-486 (870)
Invested
$2.09
Value
$3.56
PnL
+$1.47
Record
52%
185-171 (356)
Invested
$28.05
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$25.04
Record
49%
1228-1254 (2482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.