Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ghana vs. Somalia: 1st Half O/U 0.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$251.32

Smart Money Entry

33.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,512

Combined PnL+$428.59

Over9 traders

Total Value$257.94

Total Shares622

Combined PnL-$177.26

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 33.4¢	$656.34	$963.46	+$307.12	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 32.9¢	$48.92	$138.25	+$89.33	32% 538-1125 (1663)
SU suntori	Overavg 77¢	$155.22	$100.79	-$54.43	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
poshposhARB<$100	Overavg 57.4¢	$107.19	$93.99	-$13.2	47% 522-581 (1103)
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.4¢	$101.85	$72.8	-$29.05
└ Under leg	Underavg 14.9¢	$5.34	$21.19	+$15.85
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 56.2¢	$56.65	$49.48	-$7.17	44% 384-486 (870)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Overavg 90.8¢	$38.8	$42.53	+$3.73	12% 14-105 (119)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 38.7¢	$23.25	$35.4	+$12.15	33% 534-1108 (1642)
dips.<$100	Overavg 66.6¢	$57.36	$35.3	-$22.06	45% 530-649 (1179)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$17.65	$32.55	+$14.89	54% 439-373 (812)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 31.7¢	$8.8	$12.12	+$3.32	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$2.61	$7.69	+$5.08	46% 440-515 (955)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 49¢	$7.58	$6.34	-$1.24	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 67.5¢	$57.32	$5.94	-$51.38	43% 344-463 (807)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Overavg 68.9¢	$46.01	$4.67	-$41.34	55% 88-72 (160)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 69¢	$7.47	$0.76	-$6.71	63% 363-217 (580)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$656.34

Value

$963.46

PnL

+$307.12

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$48.92

Value

$138.25

PnL

+$89.33

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

suntori

Over

Invested

$155.22

Value

$100.79

PnL

-$54.43

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

poshposhARB<$100

Over

Invested

$107.19

Value

$93.99

PnL

-$13.2

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

Both legs:

Over$101.8557.4¢-$29.05

Under$5.3414.9¢+$15.85

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$56.65

Value

$49.48

PnL

-$7.17

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Over

Invested

$38.8

Value

$42.53

PnL

+$3.73

Record

12%

14-105 (119)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.25

Value

$35.4

PnL

+$12.15

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$57.36

Value

$35.3

PnL

-$22.06

Record

45%

530-649 (1179)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.65

Value

$32.55

PnL

+$14.89

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$8.8

Value

$12.12

PnL

+$3.32

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.61

Value

$7.69

PnL

+$5.08

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$7.58

Value

$6.34

PnL

-$1.24

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$57.32

Value

$5.94

PnL

-$51.38

Record

43%

344-463 (807)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Over

Invested

$46.01

Value

$4.67

PnL

-$41.34

Record

55%

88-72 (160)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$7.47

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$6.71

Record

63%

363-217 (580)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 14 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.