Will Ghana vs. Somalia end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$5.33

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 92.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,107

Combined PnL+$5.38

Yes4 traders

Total Value$30.34

Total Shares433

Combined PnL-$0.05

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 92.5¢	$776.77	$781.18	+$4.41	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
SE sentrio	Noavg 92.6¢	$158	$158.64	+$0.64	41% 543-780 (1323)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 92¢	$47.48	$47.74	+$0.26	59% 3534-2416 (5950)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 93¢	$37.2	$37.2	+$0	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$26.74	$26.74	+$0	56% 88-70 (158)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 92¢	$13.35	$13.43	+$0.07	26% 152-427 (579)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$2	$1.75	-$0.25	15% 29-166 (195)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$1.95	$1.4	+$0.2	52% 754-704 (1458)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.45	$0.45	+$0	36% 209-368 (577)

Flaznorp

Invested

$776.77

Value

$781.18

PnL

+$4.41

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

sentrio

Invested

$158

Value

$158.64

PnL

+$0.64

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$47.48

Value

$47.74

PnL

+$0.26

Record

59%

3534-2416 (5950)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

$37.2

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.74

Value

$26.74

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

88-70 (158)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$13.35

Value

$13.43

PnL

+$0.07

Record

26%

152-427 (579)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

15%

29-166 (195)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.