Ghana vs. Somalia: Both Teams to Score

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$0.06

Smart Money Entry

73.5¢ → 74.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,985

Combined PnL+$17.64

Yes3 traders

Total Value$138.15

Total Shares576

Combined PnL-$17.69

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+34 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 73.4¢	$916.94	$924.38	+$7.44	51% 2511-2408 (4919)
LO lonmi2511	Noavg 74¢	$205.13	$206.51	+$1.39	60% 667-444 (1111)
SE sentrio	Noavg 73.5¢	$142.65	$144.07	+$1.42	41% 534-766 (1300)
NM NM-P	Noavg 73.5¢	$103.89	$105.24	+$1.35	59% 3534-2412 (5946)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$85.06	$86.03	+$0.96	26% 152-423 (575)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 73¢	$235.82	$82.51	+$5.08	52% 746-692 (1438)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$67.67	$62.46	-$5.21	32% 524-1097 (1621)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$60.3	$51.69	-$8.61	32% 530-1111 (1641)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$27.87	$24	-$3.87	33% 546-1093 (1639)

Flaznorp

Invested

$916.94

Value

$924.38

PnL

+$7.44

Record

51%

2511-2408 (4919)

lonmi2511

Invested

$205.13

Value

$206.51

PnL

+$1.39

Record

60%

667-444 (1111)

sentrio

Invested

$142.65

Value

$144.07

PnL

+$1.42

Record

41%

534-766 (1300)

NM-P

Invested

$103.89

Value

$105.24

PnL

+$1.35

Record

59%

3534-2412 (5946)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$85.06

Value

$86.03

PnL

+$0.96

Record

26%

152-423 (575)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$235.82

Value

$82.51

PnL

+$5.08

Record

52%

746-692 (1438)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.67

Value

$62.46

PnL

-$5.21

Record

32%

524-1097 (1621)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.3

Value

$51.69

PnL

-$8.61

Record

32%

530-1111 (1641)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.87

Value

$24

PnL

-$3.87

Record

33%

546-1093 (1639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+34 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.