Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Gabon vs. Lesotho: O/U 1.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $217 held · ended Nov 13

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$216.52

Combined PnL

$7.2

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$24.88

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$2

Under8 traders

Total Value$60.46

Total Shares114

Combined PnL+$9.2

Over — 20%Under — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dips.ARB<$100	Underavg 48.1¢	$131.54	$131.18	-$0.36	46% 741-865 (1606)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$78.88	$85.34	+$6.46
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.1¢	$52.66	$45.84	-$6.82
poshposh<$100	Overavg 57.9¢	$24.63	$22.48	-$2.15	47% 786-902 (1688)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$14.1	$15.6	+$1.5	36% 326-587 (913)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.75	$11.02	+$1.27	36% 763-1361 (2124)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$7.96	$9.41	+$1.45	63% 464-269 (733)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$4.95	$7.8	+$2.85	43% 507-662 (1169)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$6.5	$7.35	+$0.85	35% 750-1386 (2136)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$3.18	$3.84	+$0.66	45% 595-734 (1329)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$3.25	$3.67	+$0.42	34% 736-1405 (2141)
alpheclabs2<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.4	+$0.15	46% 219-260 (479)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$1.56	$1.76	+$0.2	51% 3195-3131 (6326)

dips.ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$131.54

Value

$131.18

PnL

-$0.36

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

Both legs:

Under$78.8848.1¢+$6.46

Over$52.6655.1¢-$6.82

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$24.63

Value

$22.48

PnL

-$2.15

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.1

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$1.5

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.75

Value

$11.02

PnL

+$1.27

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.96

Value

$9.41

PnL

+$1.45

Record

63%

464-269 (733)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.95

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$2.85

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.5

Value

$7.35

PnL

+$0.85

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.18

Value

$3.84

PnL

+$0.66

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.67

PnL

+$0.42

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

alpheclabs2<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.15

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.56

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.