Will Lesotho win on 2026-11-13?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $481 held · ended Nov 13

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$480.74

Combined PnL

$11.98

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 92.3¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$185.93

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$2.33

Yes5 traders

Total Value$26.35

Total Shares318

Combined PnL+$14.31

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 91.5¢	$220.56	$268.47	+$47.91	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ No leg	Noavg 91.5¢	$170.64	$170.22	-$0.42
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4.4¢	$49.92	$98.25	+$48.33
poshposh<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$60.96	$60.63	-$0.33	46% 781-902 (1683)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$55.21	$54.73	-$0.48	56% 307-245 (552)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 94¢	$47	$46.25	-$0.75	34% 735-1404 (2139)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$4.16	$17.6	+$13.44	43% 507-662 (1169)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$16.67	$16.31	-$0.36	43% 808-1065 (1873)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$8.42	$8.01	-$0.41	32% 291-613 (904)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.62	$4.46	+$2.84	26% 250-703 (953)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$5.8	$2.67	-$3.13	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
dips.CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.25	$1.06	+$0.81	46% 741-864 (1605)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.2	$0.55	+$0.35	36% 432-771 (1203)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$220.56

Value

$268.47

PnL

+$47.91

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

No$170.6491.5¢-$0.42

Yes$49.924.4¢+$48.33

poshposh<$100

Invested

$60.96

Value

$60.63

PnL

-$0.33

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$55.21

Value

$54.73

PnL

-$0.48

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$47

Value

$46.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

smithagentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.16

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$13.44

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$16.67

Value

$16.31

PnL

-$0.36

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$8.42

Value

$8.01

PnL

-$0.41

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$4.46

PnL

+$2.84

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.8

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$3.13

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

dips.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.81

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-30 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.6%

92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.