Will Gabon win on 2026-11-13?

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 61¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Yes61¢No39¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$429.6

Smart Money Entry

78.5¢ → 60.5¢

-23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,842

Combined PnL-$153.85

No9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares4,044

Combined PnL+$583.44

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU sugar-super	Yesavg 78¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$84.73	3% 2-76 (78)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 21.6¢	$481.25	$778.47	+$297.21	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 81¢	$467.67	$410.49	-$57.18	35% 749-1385 (2134)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 20.8¢	$215.48	$408.36	+$192.88	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Noavg 22.2¢	$95.69	$150.62	+$54.93	36% 432-771 (1203)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$76.74	$71.88	-$4.86	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$34.82	$55.47	+$20.65	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 74.4¢	$58.33	$51.41	-$6.92	46% 781-902 (1683)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 29.8¢	$38.99	$46.96	+$9.97	26% 250-703 (953)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 35.6¢	$24.12	$25.72	+$1.59	36% 326-587 (913)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 23.9¢	$7.69	$12.89	+$5.2	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$11.83	$12.88	+$1.05	35% 735-1379 (2114)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$10	$9.37	-$0.63	10% 11-100 (111)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$7.82	$7.23	-$0.59	34% 735-1404 (2139)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$3.63	$4.13	+$0.5	45% 593-733 (1326)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 23¢	$0.97	$1.48	+$0.51	43% 507-662 (1169)

sugar-super

Yes

Invested

$1,652.14

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$84.73

Record

2-76 (78)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$481.25

Value

$778.47

PnL

+$297.21

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$467.67

Value

$410.49

PnL

-$57.18

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$215.48

Value

$408.36

PnL

+$192.88

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Invested

$95.69

Value

$150.62

PnL

+$54.93

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.74

Value

$71.88

PnL

-$4.86

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$34.82

Value

$55.47

PnL

+$20.65

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.33

Value

$51.41

PnL

-$6.92

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$38.99

Value

$46.96

PnL

+$9.97

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$24.12

Value

$25.72

PnL

+$1.59

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$7.69

Value

$12.89

PnL

+$5.2

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.83

Value

$12.88

PnL

+$1.05

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$9.37

PnL

-$0.63

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.82

Value

$7.23

PnL

-$0.59

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.5

Record

45%

593-733 (1326)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$0.97

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.51

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 16 top traders (44%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 53% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.