Will Zimbabwe win on 2026-11-12?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$12.57

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 74.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$731.02

Total Shares1,081

Combined PnL-$17.34

Yes4 traders

Total Value$385.15

Total Shares1,297

Combined PnL+$29.91

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 70.7¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$60.74	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$70.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 26.9¢	$607.05	$597.49	-$9.56
LI LightParadox	Noavg 68¢	$529.92	$526.02	-$3.9	33% 553-1132 (1685)
LE LexingtonCTR	Yesavg 26¢	$280.8	$313.2	+$32.4	— 0-1 (1)
BI biying99999<$100	Noavg 74¢	$97.03	$89.16	-$7.87	30% 71-166 (237)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 72¢	$61.1	$57.68	-$3.41	41% 544-784 (1328)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$42.18	$42.98	+$0.81	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 68¢	$42.61	$42.3	-$0.31	32% 538-1125 (1663)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.8¢	$31.66	$28.35	-$3.3	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 68.6¢	$31.73	$11.13	-$1.82	52% 761-712 (1473)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.76	$4.73	-$0.03	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$0.6	$0.61	+$0.01	56% 4482-3456 (7938)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$2,410.37

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$60.74

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

No$1,803.3270.7¢+$70.31

Yes$607.0526.9¢-$9.56

LightParadox

Invested

$529.92

Value

$526.02

PnL

-$3.9

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

LexingtonCTR

Yes

Invested

$280.8

Value

$313.2

PnL

+$32.4

Record

—

0-1 (1)

biying99999<$100

Invested

$97.03

Value

$89.16

PnL

-$7.87

Record

30%

71-166 (237)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$61.1

Value

$57.68

PnL

-$3.41

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.18

Value

$42.98

PnL

+$0.81

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$42.61

Value

$42.3

PnL

-$0.31

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.66

Value

$28.35

PnL

-$3.3

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$31.73

Value

$11.13

PnL

-$1.82

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

suntori<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0.01

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.