Equatorial Guinea vs. Zimbabwe: O/U 1.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 63¢ · $783 held · ended Nov 12

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$782.78

Combined PnL

$80.94

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 62.5¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$503.13

Total Shares784

Combined PnL+$83.51

Over2 traders

Total Value$279.65

Total Shares631

Combined PnL-$2.57

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 56¢	$357.8	$418.45	+$60.65	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
RN1CTR	Overavg 44¢	$277.95	$275.38	-$2.57	56% 4482-3456 (7938)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 42.2¢	$46.7	$70.67	+$23.97	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 40¢	$5.94	$5.35	-$0.59	33% 534-1108 (1642)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.6	$4.65	+$0.05	32% 538-1125 (1663)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 64¢	$4.26	$4.26	+$0	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.52	$2.16	-$0.36	36% 209-368 (577)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 40¢	$2.06	$1.85	-$0.21	33% 558-1109 (1667)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$357.8

Value

$418.45

PnL

+$60.65

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$277.95

Value

$275.38

PnL

-$2.57

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$46.7

Value

$70.67

PnL

+$23.97

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.59

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.26

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.36

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$2.06

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.21

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.