Will Equatorial Guinea win on 2026-11-12?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$53.13

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 70¢

+17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$965.39

Total Shares1,513

Combined PnL+$55.4

Yes5 traders

Total Value$37.57

Total Shares106

Combined PnL-$2.27

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 40.4¢	$911.35	$785.06	-$126.28	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.4¢	$608.8	$459.23	-$149.57
└ No leg	Noavg 64.5¢	$302.54	$325.83	+$23.29
LE Lexington	Noavg 58.3¢	$639.99	$691.11	+$51.12	— 0-1 (1)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 63¢	$91.78	$75.13	-$0.68	52% 761-712 (1473)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 66.4¢	$70.33	$73.56	+$3.23	32% 538-1125 (1663)
RN1<$100	Noavg 63¢	$48.03	$49.18	+$1.14	56% 4482-3456 (7938)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 63¢	$38.88	$38.88	+$0	33% 558-1109 (1667)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$29.93	$27.71	-$2.22	41% 544-784 (1328)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 69¢	$19.83	$19.97	+$0.14	33% 553-1132 (1685)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$17.12	$17.56	+$0.44	33% 534-1108 (1642)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$4.2	$4.35	+$0.15	46% 440-515 (955)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2.21	$2.21	+$0.01	22% 176-635 (811)
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.85	-$0.2	— 6-3 (9)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.45	+$0	49% 1228-1254 (2482)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$911.35

Value

$785.06

PnL

-$126.28

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

Both legs:

Yes$608.840.4¢-$149.57

No$302.5464.5¢+$23.29

Lexington

Invested

$639.99

Value

$691.11

PnL

+$51.12

Record

—

0-1 (1)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$91.78

Value

$75.13

PnL

-$0.68

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$70.33

Value

$73.56

PnL

+$3.23

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

RN1<$100

Invested

$48.03

Value

$49.18

PnL

+$1.14

Record

56%

4482-3456 (7938)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$38.88

Value

$38.88

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.93

Value

$27.71

PnL

-$2.22

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$19.83

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$0.14

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$17.12

Value

$17.56

PnL

+$0.44

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.15

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.01

Record

22%

176-635 (811)

BlackMamba08CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.2

Record

—

6-3 (9)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.