Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Zimbabwe end in a draw?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 44¢ · $66 held · ended Nov 12

Yes44¢No56¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$65.53

Combined PnL

$9.68

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$65.53

Total Shares165

Combined PnL+$9.68

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.9¢	$13.38	$18.23	+$4.85	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$11.56	$14.28	+$2.72	33% 534-1108 (1642)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$10	$10.16	+$0.16	0% 0-94 (94)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$7.84	$8.53	+$0.69	33% 553-1132 (1685)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$5.98	$7.14	+$1.16	33% 558-1109 (1667)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$1.99	$2.02	+$0.03	15% 29-166 (195)
0X 0x63C4dCbb199c5eCA30c8a002fF238aAd5DCE4671-1779125900020CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$1.95	$1.93	-$0.02	— 5-1 (6)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.55	$1.63	+$0.07	41% 544-784 (1328)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$1.6	$1.63	+$0.02	49% 1228-1254 (2482)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.38

Value

$18.23

PnL

+$4.85

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.56

Value

$14.28

PnL

+$2.72

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

0-94 (94)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.84

Value

$8.53

PnL

+$0.69

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.98

Value

$7.14

PnL

+$1.16

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.03

Record

15%

29-166 (195)

0x63C4dCbb199c5eCA30c8a002fF238aAd5DCE4671-1779125900020CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

—

5-1 (6)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.07

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.02

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.