DR Congo vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 3.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (82%) · Over at 52¢ · $412 held · ended Nov 12

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 82%

Total Value

$412.31

Combined PnL

$89.11

Smart Money Entry

33¢ → 52¢

+58% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$407.27

Total Shares918

Combined PnL+$89.07

Under2 traders

Total Value$5.04

Total Shares8

Combined PnL+$0.04

Over — 82%Under — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 27¢	$79.95	$118.44	+$38.49	36% 209-368 (577)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 28¢	$82.04	$117.2	+$35.16	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 55.4¢	$57.8	$54.78	-$3.02	47% 522-581 (1103)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 28¢	$36.95	$52.78	+$15.83	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 52¢	$29.74	$28.88	-$0.86	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Overavg 62¢	$13.73	$13.96	+$0.23	27% 182-489 (671)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 38¢	$7.61	$10.11	+$2.5	33% 302-622 (924)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 62¢	$8.45	$8.35	-$0.1	44% 384-486 (870)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 61¢	$3.66	$3.69	+$0.03	43% 344-463 (807)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 28¢	$1.94	$2.77	+$0.83	33% 534-1108 (1642)
dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 61¢	$1.34	$1.35	+$0.01	45% 530-649 (1179)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$79.95

Value

$118.44

PnL

+$38.49

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$82.04

Value

$117.2

PnL

+$35.16

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$57.8

Value

$54.78

PnL

-$3.02

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$36.95

Value

$52.78

PnL

+$15.83

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$29.74

Value

$28.88

PnL

-$0.86

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

SlickRick123<$100

Over

Invested

$13.73

Value

$13.96

PnL

+$0.23

Record

27%

182-489 (671)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$7.61

Value

$10.11

PnL

+$2.5

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$8.45

Value

$8.35

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.66

Value

$3.69

PnL

+$0.03

Record

43%

344-463 (807)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$1.94

Value

$2.77

PnL

+$0.83

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.34

Value

$1.35

PnL

+$0.01

Record

45%

530-649 (1179)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.