DR Congo vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 2.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 87¢ · $478 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
1 arb excluded
$477.96
-$19.16
68.7¢ → 86.5¢
+26% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhARB<$100 | Underavg 44.8¢ | $305.53 | $234.94 | -$70.59 | 47% 522-581 (1103) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44.8¢ | $230.74 | $159.59 | -$71.15 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 68.5¢ | $74.8 | $75.35 | +$0.56 | |
CI cigarettes | Overavg 70.4¢ | $111.9 | $115.27 | +$3.38 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $43.37 | $44.72 | +$1.36 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 35.5¢ | $52.87 | $34.33 | -$18.54 | 44% 384-486 (870) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $67.11 | $19.69 | +$1.58 | 52% 761-712 (1473) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Underavg 31.8¢ | $41.36 | $11.87 | -$8.66 | 27% 182-489 (671) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $10 | $11.57 | +$1.57 | 34% 277-534 (811) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $4.95 | +$0.15 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
poshposhARB<$100Invested
$305.53
Value
$234.94
PnL
-$70.59
Record
47%
522-581 (1103)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.9
Value
$115.27
PnL
+$3.38
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
Invested
$43.37
Value
$44.72
PnL
+$1.36
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$52.87
Value
$34.33
PnL
-$18.54
Record
44%
384-486 (870)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$67.11
Value
$19.69
PnL
+$1.58
Record
52%
761-712 (1473)
Invested
$41.36
Value
$11.87
PnL
-$8.66
Record
27%
182-489 (671)
Invested
$10
Value
$11.57
PnL
+$1.57
Record
34%
277-534 (811)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.