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poshposh<$100Sierra Leone
VeryLucky888<$100Sierra LeoneDR CongoDR CongoDR Congo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was DR Congo — but Sierra Leone won instead.
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5)
Resolved Sierra Leone. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held DR Congo. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
DR Congo 60%
Total Value
$25.53
Combined PnL
$11.19
Smart Money Signal
DR Congo
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
DR Congo0%
Sierra Leone100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Sierra Leone2 traders
Total Value$25.53
Total Shares26
Combined PnL+$16.75
DR Congo3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares18
Combined PnL-$5.56
Sierra Leone — 40%DR Congo — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
poshposh<$100 | Sierra Leoneavg 15¢ | $2.43 | $16.19 | +$13.76 | 48% 590-645 (1235) |
VeryLucky888<$100 | Sierra Leoneavg 68¢ | $6.35 | $9.34 | +$2.99 | 52% 813-742 (1555) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | DR Congoavg 30¢ | $0.43 | — | -$0.43 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | DR Congoavg 31¢ | $2.14 | — | -$2.14 | 55% 1693-1391 (3084) |
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100 | DR Congoavg 32¢ | $2.99 | — | -$2.99 | 18% 37-170 (207) |
poshposh<$100Invested
$2.43
Value
$16.19
PnL
+$13.76
Record
48%
590-645 (1235)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$6.35
Value
$9.34
PnL
+$2.99
Record
52%
813-742 (1555)
FL
FlaznorpCTR<$100Invested
$0.43
Value
—
PnL
-$0.43
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
GO
GoalLineGhostCTR<$100Invested
$2.14
Value
—
PnL
-$2.14
Record
55%
1693-1391 (3084)
0X
0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100Invested
$2.99
Value
—
PnL
-$2.99
Record
18%
37-170 (207)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xb1702e47...b2f819
Slug
afcq-dc-sl-2026-11-12-spread-home-2pt5