Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Sierra Leone — but DR Congo won instead.
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5)
Resolved DR Congo. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Sierra Leone. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
8
Sierra Leone 63%
$112.02
-$198.5
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | DR Congoavg 50¢ | $21.63 | $43.26 | +$21.63 | 41% 293-414 (707) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Sierra Leoneavg 45¢ | $228.74 | $42.26 | -$186.48 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
LO looppau<$100 | DR Congoavg 99.9¢ | $17.83 | $17.85 | +$0.02 | 100% 415-0 (415) |
SU suntori<$100 | DR Congoavg 55¢ | $4.76 | $8.65 | +$3.89 | 47% 1704-1945 (3649) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Sierra Leoneavg 45.8¢ | $27.02 | — | -$27.02 | 41% 589-849 (1438) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Sierra Leoneavg 44¢ | $7.86 | — | -$7.86 | 54% 211-181 (392) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Sierra Leoneavg 12¢ | $0.24 | — | -$0.24 | 48% 590-645 (1235) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Sierra Leoneavg 43¢ | $2.44 | — | -$2.44 | 52% 813-742 (1555) |
Invested
$21.63
Value
$43.26
PnL
+$21.63
Record
41%
293-414 (707)
Invested
$228.74
Value
$42.26
PnL
-$186.48
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$17.83
Value
$17.85
PnL
+$0.02
Record
100%
415-0 (415)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$8.65
PnL
+$3.89
Record
47%
1704-1945 (3649)
Invested
$27.02
Value
—
PnL
-$27.02
Record
41%
589-849 (1438)
Invested
$7.86
Value
—
PnL
-$7.86
Record
54%
211-181 (392)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.24
Value
—
PnL
-$0.24
Record
48%
590-645 (1235)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.44
Value
—
PnL
-$2.44
Record
52%
813-742 (1555)