Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-11-12?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $351 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$351.13
-$116.85
94.8¢ → 94.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95¢ | $265.49 | $174.66 | -$90.82 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $82.58 | $67.8 | -$14.78 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $36.16 | $35.97 | -$0.19 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $25.65 | $25.51 | -$0.14 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $28.1 | $18.75 | -$9.35 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $11.01 | $12.48 | +$1.47 | 39% 382-610 (992) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $10.26 | $10.21 | -$0.05 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $8.74 | $5.75 | -$2.99 | 31% 405-886 (1291) |
Invested
$265.49
Value
$174.66
PnL
-$90.82
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
Invested
$82.58
Value
$67.8
PnL
-$14.78
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$36.16
Value
$35.97
PnL
-$0.19
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
Invested
$25.65
Value
$25.51
PnL
-$0.14
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$28.1
Value
$18.75
PnL
-$9.35
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$11.01
Value
$12.48
PnL
+$1.47
Record
39%
382-610 (992)
Invested
$10.26
Value
$10.21
PnL
-$0.05
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$8.74
Value
$5.75
PnL
-$2.99
Record
31%
405-886 (1291)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.