Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
DR Congo vs. Sierra Leone: 1st Half O/U 1.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 0.4¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
$2.1K
$66.01
62.6¢ → 0.4¢
-99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lonmi2511CTR | Underavg 62.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0.63 | 60% 673-450 (1123) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Underavg 63¢ | $222.9 | $221.13 | -$1.77 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
 poshposh | Overavg 45.8¢ | $62.77 | $121.32 | +$58.56 | 47% 522-581 (1103) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 62.4¢ | $109.03 | $114.39 | +$5.36 | 52% 761-712 (1473) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Overavg 48.3¢ | $72.5 | $75 | +$2.5 | 53% 6091-5453 (11544) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $48.93 | $49.65 | +$0.72 | 51% 2532-2437 (4969) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Overavg 47.7¢ | $14.94 | $16.22 | +$1.28 | 44% 384-486 (870) |
Invested
$1,514.95
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0.63
Record
60%
673-450 (1123)
Invested
$222.9
Value
$221.13
PnL
-$1.77
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
poshposhInvested
$62.77
Value
$121.32
PnL
+$58.56
Record
47%
522-581 (1103)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$109.03
Value
$114.39
PnL
+$5.36
Record
52%
761-712 (1473)
Invested
$72.5
Value
$75
PnL
+$2.5
Record
53%
6091-5453 (11544)
Invested
$48.93
Value
$49.65
PnL
+$0.72
Record
51%
2532-2437 (4969)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$16.22
PnL
+$1.28
Record
44%
384-486 (870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.