Cape Verde vs. Liberia: O/U 4.5

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (62%) · Over at 99¢ · $484 held · ended Nov 13

Over99¢Under1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 62%

Total Value

$484.28

Combined PnL

$21.72

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 98.5¢

+59% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$256.32

Total Shares380

Combined PnL-$44.53

Under5 traders

Total Value$227.96

Total Shares349

Combined PnL+$66.25

Over — 62%Under — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dips.	Overavg 72.6¢	$132.63	$101.52	-$31.12	46% 741-865 (1606)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Underavg 79¢	$93	$81	-$12	63% 464-269 (733)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$25	$67.73	+$42.73	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$21.46	$55.17	+$33.72	36% 763-1361 (2124)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 51.4¢	$39.7	$48.7	+$9	47% 786-902 (1688)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 65.7¢	$55.55	$26.25	-$15.16	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 72.4¢	$42.47	$23.55	-$13.92	43% 507-662 (1169)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Overavg 35.4¢	$18.07	$23.5	+$5.43	32% 291-613 (904)
BE Betyourself<$100	Overavg 56¢	$11.77	$18.07	+$6.3	— 12-1 (13)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 78¢	$15.6	$14.9	-$0.7	36% 432-771 (1203)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 59.3¢	$15.53	$12.04	-$3.49	45% 595-734 (1329)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 54.2¢	$6.66	$9.16	+$2.5	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 73¢	$4.27	$2.69	-$1.58	36% 252-442 (694)

dips.

Over

Invested

$132.63

Value

$101.52

PnL

-$31.12

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$93

Value

$81

PnL

-$12

Record

63%

464-269 (733)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25

Value

$67.73

PnL

+$42.73

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.46

Value

$55.17

PnL

+$33.72

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$39.7

Value

$48.7

PnL

+$9

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$55.55

Value

$26.25

PnL

-$15.16

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$42.47

Value

$23.55

PnL

-$13.92

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

SlickRick123<$100

Over

Invested

$18.07

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$5.43

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

Betyourself<$100

Over

Invested

$11.77

Value

$18.07

PnL

+$6.3

Record

—

12-1 (13)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.6

Value

$14.9

PnL

-$0.7

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$15.53

Value

$12.04

PnL

-$3.49

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.66

Value

$9.16

PnL

+$2.5

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$4.27

Value

$2.69

PnL

-$1.58

Record

36%

252-442 (694)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

70% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.