Cape Verde vs. Liberia: O/U 3.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (78%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 78%
$1.0K
$98.63
89.8¢ → 100¢
+11% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smithagent | Overavg 90¢ | $539.1 | $598.7 | +$59.6 | 43% 507-662 (1169) |
US User7429 | Overavg 90¢ | $197.65 | $219.5 | +$21.85 | 36% 252-442 (694) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Overavg 95.6¢ | $91.33 | $95.44 | +$4.11 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
 dips.<$100 | Overavg 90¢ | $46.26 | $51.37 | +$5.11 | 46% 741-865 (1606) |
SU suitcase6628<$100 | Overavg 90¢ | $36 | $39.98 | +$3.98 | 63% 464-269 (733) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $1.67 | $6.43 | +$4.75 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $5 | +$3.75 | 36% 763-1361 (2124) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Underavg 74¢ | $4.76 | $3.41 | -$1.35 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $3.18 | $0 | -$3.18 | 32% 291-613 (904) |
Invested
$539.1
Value
$598.7
PnL
+$59.6
Record
43%
507-662 (1169)
Invested
$197.65
Value
$219.5
PnL
+$21.85
Record
36%
252-442 (694)
Invested
$91.33
Value
$95.44
PnL
+$4.11
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
dips.<$100Invested
$46.26
Value
$51.37
PnL
+$5.11
Record
46%
741-865 (1606)
Invested
$36
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$3.98
Record
63%
464-269 (733)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$6.43
PnL
+$4.75
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.75
Record
36%
763-1361 (2124)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$3.41
PnL
-$1.35
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
Invested
$3.18
Value
$0
PnL
-$3.18
Record
32%
291-613 (904)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.