Cape Verde vs. Liberia: O/U 2.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 100¢ · $327 held · ended Nov 13

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$326.65

Combined PnL

-$78.16

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 99.5¢

+10% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$323.75

Total Shares325

Combined PnL+$25.9

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.32

Total Shares255

Combined PnL-$104.07

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 98.9¢	$262.03	$263.67	+$1.64	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 49¢	$7.84	$15.92	+$8.08	36% 252-442 (694)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 67.1¢	$12.61	$13.96	+$1.35	47% 786-902 (1688)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 47¢	$6.09	$12.9	+$6.81	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Overavg 64¢	$12.38	$9.52	+$4.14	32% 291-613 (904)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 50¢	$3.9	$7.79	+$3.89	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$81.85	$1.12	-$55.3	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$49.51	$0.97	-$48.54	56% 309-246 (555)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.46	$0.23	-$0.23	3% 7-242 (249)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$262.03

Value

$263.67

PnL

+$1.64

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$7.84

Value

$15.92

PnL

+$8.08

Record

36%

252-442 (694)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$12.61

Value

$13.96

PnL

+$1.35

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$6.09

Value

$12.9

PnL

+$6.81

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

SlickRick123<$100

Over

Invested

$12.38

Value

$9.52

PnL

+$4.14

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$3.9

Value

$7.79

PnL

+$3.89

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$81.85

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$55.3

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.51

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$48.54

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.23

Record

7-242 (249)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.