Will Liberia win on 2026-11-13?
8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 67%
$9.1K
-$65.95
98.9¢ → 99.4¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-26 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 99.3¢ | $7.5K | $7.5K | -$0.06 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 98.9¢ | $449.03 | $451.01 | +$1.98 | 34% 735-1404 (2139) |
 tradecraft | Noavg 95¢ | $328.43 | $328.43 | -$0 | 26% 250-703 (953) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 98.5¢ | $253.33 | $255.39 | +$2.06 | 35% 735-1379 (2114) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 95¢ | $218.42 | $222.18 | +$9.78 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 99.5¢ | $199 | $198.6 | -$0.4 | 35% 749-1385 (2134) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 95¢ | $112.07 | $112.07 | +$0 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $63.91 | $64.59 | +$0.68 | 56% 307-245 (552) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $69.35 | $9.71 | -$59.64 | 54% 1849-1555 (3404) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $16.74 | $3.91 | -$12.83 | 46% 741-864 (1605) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $65.1 | $2.63 | -$7.52 | 43% 507-662 (1169) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $0.04 | $0.04 | -$0 | 46% 781-902 (1683) |
Invested
$7,490.48
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$0.06
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$449.03
Value
$451.01
PnL
+$1.98
Record
34%
735-1404 (2139)
tradecraftInvested
$328.43
Value
$328.43
PnL
-$0
Record
26%
250-703 (953)
Invested
$253.33
Value
$255.39
PnL
+$2.06
Record
35%
735-1379 (2114)
VeryLucky888Invested
$218.42
Value
$222.18
PnL
+$9.78
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$199
Value
$198.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
35%
749-1385 (2134)
Invested
$112.07
Value
$112.07
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
Invested
$63.91
Value
$64.59
PnL
+$0.68
Record
56%
307-245 (552)
Invested
$69.35
Value
$9.71
PnL
-$59.64
Record
54%
1849-1555 (3404)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$16.74
Value
$3.91
PnL
-$12.83
Record
46%
741-864 (1605)
Invested
$65.1
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$7.52
Record
43%
507-662 (1169)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
781-902 (1683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.