Will Cape Verde win on 2026-11-13?

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (59%) · Yes at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 59%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$453.94

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 96.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,895

Combined PnL-$82.33

No7 traders

Total Value$84.76

Total Shares2,712

Combined PnL-$371.61

Yes — 59%No — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 96.3¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$101	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 87.9¢	$61.41	$67.74	+$6.33	46% 781-902 (1683)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Noavg 20¢	$238.13	$35.72	-$202.41	41% 91-132 (223)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 20¢	$195.52	$29.33	-$166.19	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$21.89	$26.54	+$4.65	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$61.7	$25.06	-$2.47	63% 463-269 (732)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$15	$17.5	+$2.5	53% 631-566 (1197)
US User7429<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$12.8	$15.92	+$3.12	36% 252-442 (694)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 78¢	$130.59	$15.71	+$4.34	53% 1030-921 (1951)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$10	$12.03	+$2.03	10% 11-100 (111)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$7.88	$9.36	+$1.48	35% 749-1385 (2134)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$5.64	$6.87	+$1.23	56% 307-245 (552)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 96¢	$6.73	$4.71	-$2.03	46% 741-864 (1605)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 20.6¢	$4.88	$1.42	-$3.46	43% 808-1065 (1873)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$1.33	$0.4	-$0.93	26% 250-703 (953)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$1.32	$0.33	-$0.99	43% 507-662 (1169)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$0.2	$0.07	-$0.13	46% 219-260 (479)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,775.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$101

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.41

Value

$67.74

PnL

+$6.33

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

mouzsynapseCTR

Invested

$238.13

Value

$35.72

PnL

-$202.41

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$195.52

Value

$29.33

PnL

-$166.19

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.89

Value

$26.54

PnL

+$4.65

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

suitcase6628<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.7

Value

$25.06

PnL

-$2.47

Record

63%

463-269 (732)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

User7429<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.8

Value

$15.92

PnL

+$3.12

Record

36%

252-442 (694)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$130.59

Value

$15.71

PnL

+$4.34

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$12.03

PnL

+$2.03

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.88

Value

$9.36

PnL

+$1.48

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.64

Value

$6.87

PnL

+$1.23

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.73

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$2.03

Record

46%

741-864 (1605)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$1.42

PnL

-$3.46

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$1.33

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.93

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.99

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.13

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.