Spread: Cameroon (-1.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Cameroon (50%) · Cameroon at 90¢ · $829 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Cameroon
6
Cameroon 50%
2 arb excluded
$829.03
$45.37
Research grade
NeutralCameroon at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Cameroon. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Namibiaavg 48.7¢ | $1.1K | $550.1 | -$573.89 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
| └ Cameroon leg | Cameroonavg 60.8¢ | $239.46 | $350.47 | +$111 | |
| └ Namibia leg | Namibiaavg 48.7¢ | $884.53 | $199.63 | -$684.9 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Namibiaavg 50¢ | $181.7 | $154.14 | -$27.56 | 55% 1658-1365 (3023) |
| └ Cameroon leg | Cameroonavg 54¢ | $64.8 | $84 | +$19.2 | |
| └ Namibia leg | Namibiaavg 50¢ | $116.9 | $70.14 | -$46.76 | |
LI Limousin<$100 | Cameroonavg 48¢ | $22.38 | $42.43 | +$20.05 | 33% 539-1116 (1655) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Cameroonavg 48.5¢ | $16.01 | $30.02 | +$14.01 | 34% 564-1116 (1680) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Cameroonavg 48¢ | $13.76 | $26.09 | +$12.33 | 33% 556-1141 (1697) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Namibiaavg 49.6¢ | $11.52 | $12.17 | +$0.64 | 41% 562-807 (1369) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Namibiaavg 31¢ | $11.82 | $11.44 | -$0.38 | 32% 542-1134 (1676) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Namibiaavg 47.3¢ | $8.9 | $2.63 | -$1.28 | 49% 1261-1293 (2554) |
Invested
$1,123.99
Value
$550.1
PnL
-$573.89
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Both legs:
Invested
$181.7
Value
$154.14
PnL
-$27.56
Record
55%
1658-1365 (3023)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.38
Value
$42.43
PnL
+$20.05
Record
33%
539-1116 (1655)
Invested
$16.01
Value
$30.02
PnL
+$14.01
Record
34%
564-1116 (1680)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$26.09
PnL
+$12.33
Record
33%
556-1141 (1697)
Invested
$11.52
Value
$12.17
PnL
+$0.64
Record
41%
562-807 (1369)
Invested
$11.82
Value
$11.44
PnL
-$0.38
Record
32%
542-1134 (1676)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$1.28
Record
49%
1261-1293 (2554)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.