Will Namibia win on 2026-11-12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $296 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$296.24
-$0.29
94.2¢ → 94.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $99.26 | $99.26 | +$0 | 59% 3517-2395 (5912) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $96.56 | $96.56 | +$0 | 25% 136-410 (546) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $64.6 | $63.92 | -$0.68 | 53% 177-159 (336) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $22.8 | $22.8 | +$0 | 37% 193-335 (528) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $18.9 | $9.4 | +$0 | 52% 661-616 (1277) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $3.9 | $4.29 | +$0.39 | 51% 2328-2218 (4546) |
Invested
$99.26
Value
$99.26
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3517-2395 (5912)
Invested
$96.56
Value
$96.56
PnL
+$0
Record
25%
136-410 (546)
Invested
$64.6
Value
$63.92
PnL
-$0.68
Record
53%
177-159 (336)
Invested
$22.8
Value
$22.8
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
193-335 (528)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$18.9
Value
$9.4
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
661-616 (1277)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$4.29
PnL
+$0.39
Record
51%
2328-2218 (4546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.