Will Cameroon win on 2026-11-12?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 79¢ · $929 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
1 arb excluded
$929.09
$6.77
78¢ → 78.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Yesavg 78¢ | $592.65 | $600.25 | +$7.6 | 33% 551-1131 (1682) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 22.9¢ | $276.26 | $262.93 | -$13.32 | 51% 2526-2431 (4957) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 22.9¢ | $182.33 | $167.36 | -$14.97 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 77.6¢ | $93.93 | $95.58 | +$1.65 | |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 21.9¢ | $48.37 | $47.52 | -$0.84 | 55% 1640-1346 (2986) |
WA waierma<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $10 | $9.94 | -$0.06 | 0% 0-94 (94) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 21.7¢ | $4.91 | $4.76 | -$0.15 | 41% 543-780 (1323) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 21.3¢ | $11.45 | $2.37 | +$0.29 | 52% 754-704 (1458) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $1.1 | $1.05 | -$0.05 | 50% 1226-1249 (2475) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $0.28 | $0.27 | -$0.01 | 59% 3534-2416 (5950) |
Invested
$592.65
Value
$600.25
PnL
+$7.6
Record
33%
551-1131 (1682)
Invested
$276.26
Value
$262.93
PnL
-$13.32
Record
51%
2526-2431 (4957)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.37
Value
$47.52
PnL
-$0.84
Record
55%
1640-1346 (2986)
Invested
$10
Value
$9.94
PnL
-$0.06
Record
0%
0-94 (94)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$4.76
PnL
-$0.15
Record
41%
543-780 (1323)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$11.45
Value
$2.37
PnL
+$0.29
Record
52%
754-704 (1458)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
1226-1249 (2475)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$0.01
Record
59%
3534-2416 (5950)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.