Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Uganda win on 2026-11-17?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 39¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$180.12

Smart Money Entry

30.5¢ → 38.5¢

+26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$490.06

Total Shares791

Combined PnL+$66.17

Yes4 traders

Total Value$574.73

Total Shares1,512

Combined PnL+$113.96

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingAddict12345	Noavg 52¢	$339.03	$404.23	+$65.2	57% 63-48 (111)
SilentSharkCTR	Yesavg 12¢	$79.13	$250.59	+$171.46	— 2-4 (6)
GO gotozer0CTR	Yesavg 46¢	$230	$190	-$40	50% 15-15 (30)
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	Yesavg 43¢	$150.5	$133	-$17.5	53% 101-90 (191)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 62¢	$29.88	$29.64	-$0.24	43% 561-753 (1314)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 62¢	$21.97	$21.79	-$0.18	59% 3960-2731 (6691)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 59¢	$16.52	$17.36	+$0.84	36% 140-253 (393)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$15.68	$15.92	+$0.24	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$1.14	$1.14	+$0	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
XYZ7676<$100	Noavg 45¢	$0.82	$1.13	+$0.31	—

GamblingAddict12345

Invested

$339.03

Value

$404.23

PnL

+$65.2

Record

57%

63-48 (111)

SilentSharkCTR

Yes

Invested

$79.13

Value

$250.59

PnL

+$171.46

Record

—

2-4 (6)

gotozer0CTR

Yes

Invested

$230

Value

$190

PnL

-$40

Record

50%

15-15 (30)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

Yes

Invested

$150.5

Value

$133

PnL

-$17.5

Record

53%

101-90 (191)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.64

PnL

-$0.24

Record

43%

561-753 (1314)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$21.97

Value

$21.79

PnL

-$0.18

Record

59%

3960-2731 (6691)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$16.52

Value

$17.36

PnL

+$0.84

Record

36%

140-253 (393)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$15.68

Value

$15.92

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.14

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

XYZ7676<$100

Invested

$0.82

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.31

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.